THE GEOLOGICAL CHANCE OF SUCCESS FOR PROSPECTS WITH SANDSTONE DEPENDENCIES, CRITERIA FOR THEIR EVALUATION

Abstract

Using a system of equations, the model proposed by JA Murtha is deconstructed within a dependency framework model defined for sandstones (situation in the Sub-Andean South of Bolivia where the giant gas fields are located). The considerations, assumptions and criteria were expressed in such a way as to define the fundamentals and the analytical tools represented within each branch or result of the decision tree for a typical exploratory prospect. In this way the exploratory success for each scenario is weighed in probabilistic terms, these terms being derived from the analysis of petroleum systems, their respective volumetrics and the capital investments. In so doing, the basic criteria for the structural understanding of the decision making process and for exposing the resulting information is obtained; this is as relevant for the E&P business executives as for the regulatory authorities and the States´ energy planning criteria.